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發表於 2008-2-29 13:20:39
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Gamble to rebuild an empire?Former premier may be seeking to protect his interests, rein in Samak: pundits Published on February 29, 2008
The cheers, and the jeers, that greeted Thaksin Shinawatra on his return to Thailand yesterday may have set the stage for him to rebuild his political empire. Most people believe his return is not likely to trigger a political confrontation at this juncture because Thaksin is in no hurry to reclaim power. Thaksin insists he has quit politics for good, but many believe it is only a matter of time before he attempts to make a political comeback. Thaksin still faces two legal hurdles. First, there are still several corruption cases pending against him. These cases will take time to resolve. His assets worth between Bt50 billion and Bt60 billion are frozen, pending the investigation into the allegations of corruption against him. Second, Thaksin along with 110 former executives of Thai Rak Thai Party have been barred from politics for five year by the Constitution Court. But, according to a political source, Thaksin has taken a gamble by returning to Thailand to deal with the immediate problems revolving around the economy and Samak Sundaravej, the prime minister. "The economy is about to face serious problems if it is not tackled well enough. The popularity of the government remains good. Thaksin is afraid that if the economy is not handled appropriately, the government would become unpopular and it would be difficult to reverse the situation," said the political source. Thaksin also would like to tackle Samak head-on because it looks like the incumbent premier wants to put his own stamp on leading the country without having to listen to the People Power Party. "Samak will find it difficult to move around now that Thaksin has come back. He hasn't yet had the time to build up his power. Thaksin just can't afford to let Samak consolidate his power," said Dr Montri Chenvidkarn, a political scientist. Frederic Neumann, a regional economist of HSBC based in Hong Kong, agreed Samak may develop political ambitions of his own, having recently fulfilled a long-held desired to attain the top post. "The feisty former governor of Bangkok, although hand-picked by Thaksin as leader of his political movement (presumably with the understanding of his eventual resignation in favour of his political patron) is likely to exhibit an increasingly independent streak, possibly clashing with the former premier's plans for a swift return to politics," he said. For Thaksin to return to power, the laws will have to be changed. Neumann expects the current government to move towards an amnesty for the 111 executives of Thai Rak Thai in due course. "The pending corruption cases may prove more difficult to dispose of, but, eventually, we expect these cases to be laid to rest as well. This opens the door for new elections to be held next year, which may see the return of Thaksin to the premiership, along with a comfortable parliamentary majority," he said. "But, for the time being, Thailand should enjoy a period of relative political calm as various legal complications help restrain political ambitions." A Democrat executive, who asked not to be named, said Thaksin might want his fortune back. "Thaksin might try to get his money back by filing a complaint to the court that the military coup was illegal and that as a consequence all the legal obligations that follow should be declared illegal too. This legal tactic was used to nullify the orders issued by coup-leaders in the past," he said. But the Democrat executive said Thaksin would not choose this path, at least in the immediate future because he does not need to use the money now. Thaksin's concern is how to manage the People Power Party and the overall political conditions. If he could manage it, other problems would be resolved later - including the cases in the judicial process. One renowned university law lecturer said Thaksin might have a motion submitted to the Parliament to nullify the law establishing the Asset Examination Committee (AEC), which has been probing his assets. If this comes about, the cases under the AEC might be transferred to the attorney-general. The second way to nullify the AEC is to have someone file a petition to the court. The petition will ask for nullification of the coup and its legal obligations. "Yet doing so might make him look cunning and destroy his image with the public. On the other hand, the AEC's term will end soon anyway. Why can't he wait?" the law lecturer said. However, the military establishment may yet show greater determination to keep Thaksin out of the game for good. The pending legal cases against Thaksin and against House Speaker Yongyuth Tiyapairat over alleged election fraud, might be played out and set up the country for another clash. "The return of Thaksin will create waves, but expect the former premier to lay low for the time being. Thailand is not quite out of the woods yet politically, but we expect a period of relative calm to persist for the remainder of the year," Neumann said.
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